UK Election 2015 – Gains for women, epic fails for the pollsters

Well, it’s finally all over. After weeks of debates, silly stone tablets, those bacon sandwich pictures, battle-busses cris-crossing the country and no one giving a straight answer to anything, the nation has spoken and we have a Tory majority government – with the Scottish lion roaring loudly down their ear-holes.

The star of show has clearly been Nicola Sturgeon, a strong, determined, unflappable woman with a very clear message who out-debated the men (three of whom have now resigned) and led her party to a stunning victory in Scotland. At last we have a credible female role-model in top-flight politics (whether you agree with her politics or not).

In-fact, a record number of women have been voted into parliament, accounting for nearly one in three MPs. 191 women will now be heading to the House of Commons compared to just 148 in the last parliament. Nicola Sturgeon’s own party has seen a growth in the number of female representatives from one to twenty under her leadership.

It was not a good night for the pollsters though. Every poll leading up to the election suggested that no party would gain a majority and the results would be very close. Some even gave Labour the edge. Only the broadcasters' exit poll came up with an accurate prediction. Reliance on cheap, easy internet polls instead of old-fashioned telephone calls could be to blame. People are more likely to be honest and give thought-out answers when speaking to an actual person rather than hiding behind the internet.

‘Shy Tory’ voters could also be a factor, people who didn’t want to openly identify themselves as Conservative until it came to privately putting that cross in the box. Then there are the people who made their mind up at the last minute. I think politics is moving away from people who give life-long support to one party no matter what and more towards generations who go with whoever appeals to them the most at the time. These voters are hard to predict but as polling companies charge thousands of pounds for their services, they need to raise their game next time and find a way to account for the changing times.

And finally, my message to the Liberal Democrats – don’t worry, the British people love an underdog. Keep looking tearful and humble and watch the tide of opinion start to change. Everyone loves a good loser.